We are only a few days from the Presidential election in the U.S. Joe Biden has a stable lead over Donald Trump that is outside the margin of error (which is very good thing for those of us who have had enough of Trump and Trumpism). However, we need to stay steady in our resolve to vote and get others to vote who are similarly tired of the way things are under Trump. Yesterday a friend in the U.S. sent me this comment from Facebook made by a Canadian: “Living just North of the United States these last four years has been like living in an apartment above a meth lab.” Well said, eh?
These last few days are going to be tough. We are going to hear a lot of different things on the news and via social media. Some of it is going to make us smile, some of it will enrage us, some of it will make us cry…in other words, it is going the same as every other day since November 8, 2016. Okay, maybe they will be a little tougher because the collective anxiety of the country is rising.
Nate Silver, the data nerd behind the polling website FiveThirtyEight. wrote a really excellent blog piece this last week titled 8 Tips to Stay Sane in the Final 15 Days of the Campaign. Take a look at his blog and breathe a bit easier…but do not stop voting, campaigning, calling, encouraging, and gently pushing others to vote as well. I will not go into the details of how FiveThirtyEight calculates everthing but there are two things I want to highlight.
First, Silver and his cohort of other data nerds run 40,000 computer simulations on possible outcomes of the Presidential Election. In 88% of those, Biden wins.
Second, FiveThirtyEight continuously calculates the average of polls in the U.S. so when you see, for example, that Biden is leading Trump by 9.7%, that is an average of those polls. Now, it is also important to note that FiveThirtyEight has assessed the polls for bias, rigor, method, etc., etc. When you filter the polls, you find those that have a C or higher grade, actually give Biden a larger lead.
Silver’s blog is really interesting because he explains some of this in greater detail. He also cautions, though, that there are limits to statistcal modeling. This means that while Trump has only a 13% chance of winning, he only needed a 30% chance of winning in 2016 to pull it off.
So, let’s stay calm AND let’s keep focused on finishing strong!
In Other News…well, COVID-19 News Anyway
Last week we hit new daily high in the number of COVID-19 cases. We are nearly back up to the same level of confirmed infections as we were in the height of the pandemic in the Spring.
We learning that something now in the U.S. that we learned last March from Masks4All – masks work. Recent research is showing there is a correlation between the number of people who report wearing masks and the number of people who know someone COVID-19 symptoms by geography. Check out the striking graphic within the article. Those who are less inclined to wear masks know more people with COVID-19 symptoms.
Over time, we learn more about the Coronavirus. Sometimes we forget its full name, right? It is the NOVEL Coronavirus which means we never saw it before, had no best practices related to it, and have to learn about it as we go. So, as a result what we know today may be different from what we new yesterday. So, remember how the medical experts have been saying that social interaction with someone who is a carrier of the virus should be less than 15 minutes? Turns out that is 15 minutes over a 24 hour period…not 15 minutes, then take a bathroom break, then 15 minutes more.
In a bit of good news, turns out a 14-year-old may have discovered a potential COVID-19 treatment at home...in her free time…while sheltering in place. Sure makes me feel like I’ve a sloth during the pandemic.
In Other Scary News…
Trump now has the ability to replace civil servants with loyalists. Does this mean Dr. Anthony Fauci is about to be terminated? Stand by!
In Other Infuriating News…
Just as I was putting this blog to bed I got a text from a good friend from my native state of Iowa. He and his spouse tested positive for COVID-19 today and both are showing symptoms. By age and underlying health conditions, both were at risk for contracting the virus and now both are at risk of complications.
The couple has done everything they can do to avoid infection…masking up, social distancing, and even staying away from community activities, including their church where they have been been very active. We are talking very small town Iowa here. Community and church activities are nearly unavoidable but they have been avoiding them when possible, and when it wasn’t, masking and distancing on their own. They were also trying to shelter in place until the derecho that blew threw Iowa in late Summer destroyed their home. They have been in the process of rebuilding it but they have been camping out at a borrowed home in the area.
How could this happen?!? Because Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds is an idiot and has been in lockstep with the Grand Master of Idiots from day one. Add to that, too many people in Iowa who have been following her idiotic lead by not masking up or keeping distance. Just as the legacy of Trump will be the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans, Reynolds legacy will be the deaths of thousands of Iowans.
Four months ago, while my adopted home state of Maryland was struggling to breathe under the weight of COVID-19, Iowa was still largley untouched. Today, according to the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracker, Iowa is now catching up. There are over 117,000 confirmed cases in Iowa (not counting my two friends yet) to Maryland’s 141,000+. In terms of deaths, Maryland has registered 4,100+ deaths to Iowa’s 1600+ but it may be only a matter of time.
That’s what it was back in May when COVID-19 was pummeling Maryland and it was still “fake news” to Governor Reynolds…no, wait, it is STILL “fake news” to her because it is to the Grand Master Idiot as well.
Tonight I’m angry that my friends are sick. I’m worried sick about them. This did not have to be! They did the right things, so how did it happen? Because there is a pervasive fallacy that masking protects the wearer. That’s not even half true. In reality, masking protects everyone from you and from me! You and I cannot know for sure that we are not asymptomatic carriers.
Wearing a mask, keeping distance, and washing hands is an act of compassion and caring. It shows our character, our values, and our true patriotism because we understand that, really, we are all in this together. Is that too much to ask? Or is idiocy preferred? We’ll know soon enough now.
Beau of the Fifth Column
My friend K.D. introduced me to Beau’s YouTube talks. I’ve watch several now and I must say, I’m pretty impressed. A pretty thoughtful guy though I don’t think Beau and I would agree about everything. Still, I think I could have a very interesting, useful, and respectful conversation with him. With the holidays and family gatherings coming up – hopefully more virtual than in person, please – Beau’s got some pretty solid advice in this video. Check it out!
The View from Jeff
Jeff continues to align his drawings this month with prompts from Inktober.